QUICK LINKS
Philadelphia9-276ersTT 124.0127
FinalUnited Center
Chicago1-8BullsTT 114.5121
Los Angeles9-2LakersTT 104.0121
FinalLittle Caesars Arena
Detroit6-3PistonsTT 112.5116
Utah1-9JazzTT 105.0–
7:00 PM ETTarget Center💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · MIN 42% TO WIN BY 20+ · MIN -12.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · MIN 55% TO LEAD BY 20+
Minnesota8-3TimberwolvesTT 117.5–
Brooklyn2-8 B2BNetsTT 108.0–
7:30 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center
Dallas6-4MavericksTT 115.5–
Boston8-2CelticsTT 118.0–
8:00 PM ETFiserv Forum💥 BLOWOUT WATCH · BOS 48% TO WIN BY 20+ · BOS -13.5 💸 EARLY PAYOUT POTENTIAL · BOS 61% TO LEAD BY 20+
Milwaukee1-9BucksTT 104.5–
New Orleans4-6PelicansTT 114.0–
9:00 PM ETIntuit Dome
LA2-7ClippersTT 112.5–
Miami4-6HeatTT 124.0–
9:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center
Sacramento1-9KingsTT 112.5–
⭐ Projected Winners (6)
Conditions: Only teams with 55%+ simulated win probability are shown. ★ = 65-74%, ★★ = 75-84%, ★★★ = 85%+.
Criteria: Win probability blends the 10,000 possession-by-possession sims (player rotations and rates, the same sims behind the game sim viewer) with the DraftKings market, plus trend and matchup adjustments.
Rating basis: "Rated without" names the injured players already excluded from that team's sim rating. "Rating pending" means a player was just ruled out and the re-sim has not landed yet.
BOS ★★★BOS @ MIL · 8:00 PM ETmarket 85%; model 87%
86%win prob
MIN ★★UTA @ MIN · 7:00 PM ETRated without: Edwards, DiVincenzomarket 84%; model 82%
83%win prob
PHI ★★PHI @ CHI · 3:30 PM ETRated without: Barlow, Bona, Hukportimarket 79%; model 76%
77%win prob
MIA ★★MIA @ SAC · 9:00 PM ETmarket 81%; model 72%
77%win prob
DAL ★BKN @ DAL · 7:30 PM ETRated without: Lively, Larrea, Biberovicmarket 72%; model 62%; BKN on back-to-back
69%win prob
DET —LAL @ DET · 6:00 PM ETRated without: Duren, Joemarket 71%; model 58%
65%win prob
Model projections, not guarantees. For informational purposes only.
👀 Props to watch - all games
＋
1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. o1 3PM BOS @ MIL
Soft vs SF all season (#28) + L7 (#29) · no potential data · hit 9 of 10
Over in 9 of the last 10 games
2
Tyrese Maxey o2.5 3PM PHI @ CHI
Soft vs PG all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 3 of 10
Over in 3 of the last 10 games
3
Jaylen Brown o1.5 3PM PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#29) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 7 of 10
Over in 7 of the last 10 games
4
Jaxson Hayes o0 3PM UTA @ MIN
Soft vs C all season (#26) + L7 (#26) · no potential data · hit 10 of 10
Over in 10 of the last 10 games
5
Zach LaVine o2.5 3PM MIA @ SAC
Soft vs SG all season (#30) + L7 (#28) · no potential data · hit 4 of 10
Over in 4 of the last 10 games
6
Jaylen Brown o28.5 PTS PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 22.3 FGA L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
7
Jaylen Brown o7 REB PHI @ CHI
Soft vs SF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · no potential data · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
8
LeBron James o7 AST PHI @ CHI
Soft vs PF all season (#30) + L7 (#30) · 47.3 passes/Gm L7 · hit 0 of 0
Over in 0 of the last 0 games
Minutes watch - soft matchup but not ranked:
⏳ Dean Wade AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Dominick Barlow AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Anfernee Simons AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Kentavious Caldwell-Pope PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Caleb Love AST - bench role - minutes not bankable
⏳ Rayan Rupert PTS - bench role - minutes not bankable
+88 more not ranked (minutes risk)
Ranked: projected starters only · favorable vs position in both season and L7 splits · 🩹 players excluded until confirmed.
🎯 The 100% Cheatsheets＋
Brice Sensabaugh o9.5 PTS UTA vs MIN
5/5Last 5
Ryan Rollins o9.5 PTS MIL vs BOS
5/5Last 5
Bobby Portis o8.5 PTS MIA vs SAC
5/5Last 5
WC
Walter Clayton Jr. o8.5 PTS DAL vs BKN
5/5Last 5
Joel Embiid o0.5 3PM PHI vs CHI
5/5Last 5
Sandro Mamukelashvili o0.5 3PM LAL vs DET
5/5Last 5
Perfect runs from the game logs on file against today's PropLine lines. A hot run is form, not a guarantee.
📊 Model record · 65-43 · 60%＋
65-43 graded60% on graded sim picks
90% and up
4-1 80%
80 to 89%
7-3 70%
70 to 79%
31-21 60%
60 to 69%
23-17 57%
Under 60%
0-1 0%
| Player | Pick | Model % | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nic Claxton | Over 4.5 REB | 75% | 4 | Miss |
| Nic Claxton | Over 7.5 PTS | 72.9% | 4 | Miss |
| Anfernee Simons | Under 2.5 REB | 63.8% | 4 | Miss |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | Over 17.5 PTS | 70.6% | 23 | Hit |
| Aday Mara | Over 7.5 PTS | 70.2% | 18 | Hit |
| Khaman Maluach | Over 5.5 PTS | 68.4% | 8 | Hit |
| Alex Sarr | Over 11.5 PTS | 62.9% | 15 | Hit |
| DeMar DeRozan | Under 2.5 REB | 62.6% | 1 | Hit |
Every graded sim pick in the ledger, wins and losses. Model % is the sim probability for the pick before the game.
Note
Lineups via RotoWire · confirmed lineups are usually announced about 1 hour before tip-off, or when the team releases them.